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Thalia Therapeutics PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

65.85%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Week

82,546,952,457,374.22%

increased by 82,546,952,457,307.38%

1 Month

2,486,894,931,435,584,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 2,486,894,931,435,584,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Thalia Therapeutics PLC MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0012
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9960
271.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0055
0.00
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1039
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.3562
0.01

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-