Centiel AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
89.24%
decreased by 3.54%
1 Week
91.49%
decreased by 1.29%
1 Month
96.84%
increased by 4.06%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 05:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7400 | 3.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1239 | 7.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7981 | 23.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1864 | 0.74 |
| γ2 | -0.5563 | -1.52 |
| γ3 | 0.8141 | 3.54*** |
| γ4 | -0.6967 | -2.65*** |
| γ5 | 0.5241 | 1.99** |
| γ6 | -0.6325 | -2.67*** |
| γ7 | 0.6620 | 3.57*** |
| γ8 | -0.3453 | -2.55** |
| γ9 | -0.0471 | -0.48 |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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