Centiel AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
111.15%
increased by 10.25%
1 Week
110.42%
increased by 9.52%
1 Month
108.58%
increased by 7.68%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7334 | 3.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1248 | 7.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7972 | 23.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1817 | 0.71 |
| γ2 | -0.5515 | -1.50 |
| γ3 | 0.8120 | 3.50*** |
| γ4 | -0.6916 | -2.61*** |
| γ5 | 0.5178 | 1.96* |
| γ6 | -0.6246 | -2.64*** |
| γ7 | 0.6482 | 3.54*** |
| γ8 | -0.3258 | -2.42** |
| γ9 | -0.0618 | -0.64 |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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