Centiel AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
71.09%
decreased by 5.02%
1 Week
71.78%
decreased by 4.33%
1 Month
73.37%
decreased by 2.74%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7346 | 3.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1285 | 7.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7846 | 22.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1869 | 0.75 |
| γ2 | -0.5587 | -1.56 |
| γ3 | 0.8178 | 3.67*** |
| γ4 | -0.6980 | -2.77*** |
| γ5 | 0.5219 | 2.05** |
| γ6 | -0.6232 | -2.68*** |
| γ7 | 0.6277 | 3.42*** |
| γ8 | -0.2327 | -1.40 |
| γ9 | -0.4059 | -1.11 |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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