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V-Lab

Urbana Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

24.17%

decreased by 2.01%

1 Week

26.12%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

29.53%

increased by 3.35%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Urbana Corp SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 24, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.6454
6.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2102
7.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6683
14.35***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.6507
4.23***
γ2-1.1297
-4.53***
γ30.9050
5.04***
γ4-0.7923
-4.91***
γ50.5424
3.27***
γ6-0.0947
-0.61
γ7-0.1929
-1.25
γ80.1449
0.83
γ9-0.0563
-0.19

Persistence:

0.878

Half-life:

5 days