Urbana Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
24.17%
decreased by 2.01%
1 Week
26.12%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
29.53%
increased by 3.35%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6454 | 6.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2102 | 7.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6683 | 14.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.6507 | 4.23*** |
| γ2 | -1.1297 | -4.53*** |
| γ3 | 0.9050 | 5.04*** |
| γ4 | -0.7923 | -4.91*** |
| γ5 | 0.5424 | 3.27*** |
| γ6 | -0.0947 | -0.61 |
| γ7 | -0.1929 | -1.25 |
| γ8 | 0.1449 | 0.83 |
| γ9 | -0.0563 | -0.19 |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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