V-Lab
Urbana Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
32.55%
decreased by 0.99%
1 Week
38.71%
increased by 5.17%
1 Month
44.57%
increased by 11.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 97% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2096 | 19.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3775 | 22.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2041 | 11.33*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3398 | 2.79*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2441 | 5.34*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7469 | 15.95*** |
Persistence:
0.689
Half-life:
2 days
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