Urbana Corp Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
40.65%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Week
41.36%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Month
44.05%
increased by 2.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 299 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 80% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1311 | 10.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0572 | 12.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9176 | 207.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0456 | 5.49*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
299 days
Other Asy. MEM Analyses on International Equities