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V-Lab

Urbana Corp Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

40.65%

decreased by 1.26%

1 Week

41.36%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Month

44.05%

increased by 2.14%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Urbana Corp AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 16, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 299 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 80% more than positive returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1311
10.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0572
12.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9176
207.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0456
5.49***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

299 days