Urbana Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
25.31%
decreased by 1.95%
1 Week
27.50%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
31.35%
increased by 4.09%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5873 | 6.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2094 | 7.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6700 | 14.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.6282 | 4.02*** |
| γ2 | -1.0942 | -4.32*** |
| γ3 | 0.8808 | 4.85*** |
| γ4 | -0.7717 | -4.78*** |
| γ5 | 0.5273 | 3.18*** |
| γ6 | -0.0885 | -0.57 |
| γ7 | -0.1877 | -1.25 |
| γ8 | 0.1225 | 0.90 |
| γ9 | 0.0125 | 0.12 |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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