V-Lab
Urbana Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.27%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
25.93%
increased by 1.73%
1 Month
30.46%
increased by 6.26%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5846 | 6.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2111 | 7.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6681 | 14.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.6215 | 3.99*** |
| γ2 | -1.0828 | -4.29*** |
| γ3 | 0.8725 | 4.83*** |
| γ4 | -0.7670 | -4.78*** |
| γ5 | 0.5279 | 3.20*** |
| γ6 | -0.0925 | -0.60 |
| γ7 | -0.1845 | -1.23 |
| γ8 | 0.1175 | 0.87 |
| γ9 | 0.0199 | 0.20 |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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