Ventia Services Group Pty Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
31.81%
increased by 0.50%
1 Week
33.24%
increased by 1.93%
1 Month
33.57%
increased by 2.26%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2021 to Jul 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1007 | 5.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1374 | 1.45 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 1.1435 | 0.63 |
| γ2 | -3.3885 | -1.27 |
| γ3 | 6.2793 | 3.10*** |
| γ4 | -8.2997 | -3.39*** |
| γ5 | 7.0796 | 3.06*** |
| γ6 | -3.7090 | -2.39** |
Persistence:
0.137
Half-life:
0 days
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