V-Lab
Ventia Services Group Pty Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
38.46%
increased by 6.90%
1 Week
34.61%
increased by 3.05%
1 Month
33.70%
increased by 2.14%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0941 | 5.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1086 | 1.38 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.7798 | 0.47 |
| γ2 | -2.5136 | -1.02 |
| γ3 | 5.2351 | 2.77*** |
| γ4 | -7.4689 | -3.15*** |
| γ5 | 6.6801 | 2.88*** |
| γ6 | -3.5789 | -2.40** |
Persistence:
0.109
Half-life:
0 days
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