V-Lab
Ventia Services Group Pty Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
39.03%
increased by 0.23%
1 Week
39.23%
increased by 0.43%
1 Month
39.91%
increased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. The volatility power δ = 1.67 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1542 | 3.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0097 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9564 | 146.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6687 | 8.20*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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