V-Lab
GMO TECH Holdings Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.94%
increased by 0.81%
1 Week
21.60%
increased by 1.47%
1 Month
23.28%
increased by 3.15%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 11:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1000 | 3.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2364 | 10.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7270 | 32.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0155 | -0.49 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 2.29** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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