V-Lab
GMO TECH Holdings Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
23.43%
1 Week
24.48%
1 Month
25.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 2.76 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 2.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0471 | 2.24** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6464 | 14.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4324 | -2.18** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.7564 | 4.91*** |
Persistence:
0.742
Half-life:
2 days
Other GMO TECH Holdings Inc Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on International Equities