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V-Lab

GMO TECH Holdings Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

23.43%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

24.48%

increased by 0.91%

1 Month

25.51%

increased by 1.94%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of GMO TECH Holdings Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 1, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 2.76 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
2.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0471
2.24**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6464
14.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4324
-2.18**
δ

power

Transformation power

2.7564
4.91***

Persistence:

0.742

Half-life:

2 days