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V-Lab

PT M Cash Integras APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

42.00%

decreased by 3.88%

1 Week

44.36%

decreased by 1.52%

1 Month

52.68%

increased by 6.80%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 04:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of PT M Cash Integras APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2017 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 177 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 83% more than positive returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3666
8.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2122
22.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7878
91.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1581
8.57***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8882
23.69***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

177 days