PT M Cash Integras APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
42.00%
decreased by 3.88%
1 Week
44.36%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Month
52.68%
increased by 6.80%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 04:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2017 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 177 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 83% more than positive returns
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3666 | 8.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2122 | 22.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7878 | 91.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1581 | 8.57*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8882 | 23.69*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
177 days
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