V-Lab
PT M Cash Integras Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
120.53%
1 Week
120.55%
1 Month
120.65%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 05:42 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 2, 2017 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71467349 trading days (~283600.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 58% more than positive returns
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0103 | 9.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1386 | 22.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8614 | 174.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1161 | 9.13*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9648 | 21.61*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
71467349 days
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