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V-Lab

PT M Cash Integras Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

120.53%

increased by 1.62%

1 Week

120.55%

increased by 1.64%

1 Month

120.65%

increased by 1.74%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 05:42 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of PT M Cash Integras APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 2, 2017 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71467349 trading days (~283600.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 58% more than positive returns

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0103
9.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1386
22.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8614
174.83***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1161
9.13***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9648
21.61***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

71467349 days