V-Lab
PT M Cash Integras Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
249.54%
increased by 180.48%
1 Week
236.26%
increased by 167.20%
1 Month
198.09%
increased by 129.03%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2017 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5241 | 4.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2614 | 5.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6676 | 13.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.9572 | 4.96*** |
| γ2 | -1.5986 | -5.05*** |
| γ3 | 1.1275 | 4.45*** |
| γ4 | -0.7108 | -4.21*** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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