V-Lab
PT M Cash Integras Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
72.85%
decreased by 7.33%
1 Week
78.47%
decreased by 1.71%
1 Month
88.04%
increased by 7.86%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1357 | 2.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2707 | 5.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6006 | 9.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.4762 | -0.38 |
| γ2 | 2.8850 | 1.53 |
| γ3 | -3.9893 | -2.49** |
| γ4 | 1.5156 | 0.98 |
| γ5 | -0.6405 | -0.47 |
| γ6 | 2.8631 | 1.67* |
| γ7 | -3.7322 | -1.78* |
| γ8 | 2.1890 | 1.17 |
| γ9 | -0.9142 | -0.74 |
Persistence:
0.871
Half-life:
5 days
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