V-Lab
PT M Cash Integras Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
101.16%
decreased by 14.04%
1 Week
103.37%
decreased by 11.83%
1 Month
108.87%
decreased by 6.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2017 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4979 | 4.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2618 | 5.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6677 | 13.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.9511 | 4.94*** |
| γ2 | -1.5876 | -5.02*** |
| γ3 | 1.1197 | 4.40*** |
| γ4 | -0.7068 | -4.16*** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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