V-Lab
PT M Cash Integras Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
120.98%
1 Week
121.00%
1 Month
121.09%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 05:42 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 2, 2017 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 47% more than positive returns
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0102 | 10.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1132 | 21.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8601 | 171.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0534 | 5.72*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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