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V-Lab

PT M Cash Integras MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

90.72%

decreased by 12.93%

1 Week

101.32%

decreased by 2.33%

1 Month

134.62%

increased by 30.97%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of PT M Cash Integras MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2017 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 28% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3026
11.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5598
23.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0849
2.74***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1303
2.79***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0491
4.46***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9502
80.88***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days