V-Lab
PT M Cash Integras MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
90.72%
decreased by 12.93%
1 Week
101.32%
decreased by 2.33%
1 Month
134.62%
increased by 30.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2017 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 28% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3026 | 11.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5598 | 23.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0849 | 2.74*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1303 | 2.79*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0491 | 4.46*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9502 | 80.88*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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