V-Lab
PT M Cash Integras MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
282.97%
increased by 225.15%
1 Week
290.23%
increased by 232.41%
1 Month
301.80%
increased by 243.98%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2017 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 28% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3029 | 11.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5619 | 23.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0850 | 2.75*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1329 | 2.83*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0494 | 4.48*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9499 | 81.05*** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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