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V-Lab

PT M Cash Integras MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

88.72%

decreased by 7.60%

1 Week

102.13%

increased by 5.81%

1 Month

133.81%

increased by 37.49%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:29 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of PT M Cash Integras MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 34% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2750
11.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5890
25.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0940
3.29***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1222
2.85***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0489
4.74***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9508
84.65***

Persistence:

0.911

Half-life:

7 days