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V-Lab

PT M Cash Integras MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

282.97%

increased by 225.15%

1 Week

290.23%

increased by 232.41%

1 Month

301.80%

increased by 243.98%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of PT M Cash Integras MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2017 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 28% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3029
11.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5619
23.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0850
2.75***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1329
2.83***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0494
4.48***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9499
81.05***

Persistence:

0.907

Half-life:

7 days