V-Lab
PT M Cash Integras MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
88.72%
decreased by 7.60%
1 Week
102.13%
increased by 5.81%
1 Month
133.81%
increased by 37.49%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 34% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2750 | 11.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5890 | 25.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0940 | 3.29*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1222 | 2.85*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0489 | 4.74*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9508 | 84.65*** |
Persistence:
0.911
Half-life:
7 days
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