V-Lab
PT M Cash Integras Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
214.24%
increased by 86.71%
1 Week
211.30%
increased by 83.77%
1 Month
204.18%
increased by 76.65%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 06:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2017 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3949 | 3.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2682 | 6.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6464 | 13.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.8726 | 1.23 |
| γ2 | -0.0065 | -0.01 |
| γ3 | -2.0876 | -3.33*** |
| γ4 | 1.2663 | 1.99** |
| γ5 | 1.2534 | 1.88* |
| γ6 | -2.9644 | -3.57*** |
| γ7 | 4.1384 | 2.32** |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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