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V-Lab

PT M Cash Integras Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

214.24%

increased by 86.71%

1 Week

211.30%

increased by 83.77%

1 Month

204.18%

increased by 76.65%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 06:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of PT M Cash Integras SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2017 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3949
3.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2682
6.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6464
13.31***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.8726
1.23
γ2-0.0065
-0.01
γ3-2.0876
-3.33***
γ41.2663
1.99**
γ51.2534
1.88*
γ6-2.9644
-3.57***
γ74.1384
2.32**

Persistence:

0.915

Half-life:

8 days