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V-Lab

PT M Cash Integras GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

193.22%

increased by 8.87%

1 Week

193.90%

increased by 9.55%

1 Month

196.57%

increased by 12.22%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of PT M Cash Integras GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2017 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 60% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5183
12.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1867
13.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7575
85.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1116
3.43***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-