V-Lab
PT M Cash Integras GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
340.92%
increased by 94.31%
1 Week
336.61%
increased by 90.00%
1 Month
321.78%
increased by 75.17%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 06:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2017 to Aug 7, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.07 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 245.8404 | 3.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1890 | 73.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9723 | 122.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0680 | 472.36*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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