V-Lab
PT M Cash Integras GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
254.21%
increased by 70.83%
1 Week
251.83%
increased by 68.45%
1 Month
244.07%
increased by 60.69%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2017 to Jul 24, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.07 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 186.1062 | 3.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1819 | 53.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9647 | 86.57*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0708 | 347.73*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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