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V-Lab

PT M Cash Integras GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

209.66%

increased by 95.86%

1 Week

210.50%

increased by 96.70%

1 Month

213.83%

increased by 100.03%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 03:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of PT M Cash Integras GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2017 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7005
16.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2884
16.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7116
66.89***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-