V-Lab
PT M Cash Integras AGARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
184.90%
decreased by 42.26%
1 Week
192.31%
decreased by 34.85%
1 Month
225.99%
decreased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2017 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.033 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8244 | 18.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3768 | 24.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6567 | 96.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1092 | 1.15 |
Persistence:
1.033
Half-life:
-
Other PT M Cash Integras Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on International Equities