V-Lab
City of London Investment Group PLC GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
61.62%
decreased by 3.18%
1 Week
63.86%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Month
65.91%
increased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.91* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2262 | 2.02** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6041 | 7.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2262 | -2.05** |
Persistence:
0.717
Half-life:
2 days
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