City of London Investment Group PLC EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
63.96%
increased by 6.88%
1 Week
70.50%
increased by 13.42%
1 Month
72.69%
increased by 15.61%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 68% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9771 | 4.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5672 | 8.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3542 | 2.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1442 | 2.71*** |
Persistence:
0.354
Half-life:
1 days
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