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V-Lab

City of London Investment Group PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

67.31%

decreased by 16.06%

1 Week

89.19%

increased by 5.82%

1 Month

104.15%

increased by 20.78%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of City of London Investment Group PLC GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.47 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

47.5208
2.33**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3243
4.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6859
6.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.4714
8.94***

Persistence:

0.686

Half-life:

2 days