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V-Lab

City of London Investment Group PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026

1 Day

85.61%

increased by 10.18%

1 Week

85.91%

increased by 10.48%

1 Month

87.07%

increased by 11.64%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of City of London Investment Group PLC GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

129.7446
8.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0743
9.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,052.69***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.3269
66.84***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days