City of London Investment Group PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
88.66%
increased by 5.69%
1 Week
89.55%
increased by 6.58%
1 Month
93.01%
increased by 10.04%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.10 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 346.3970 | 8.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0773 | 10.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 737.81*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0981 | 276.50*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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