V-Lab
City of London Investment Group PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
67.31%
decreased by 16.06%
1 Week
89.19%
increased by 5.82%
1 Month
104.15%
increased by 20.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.47 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 47.5208 | 2.33** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3243 | 4.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6859 | 6.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4714 | 8.94*** |
Persistence:
0.686
Half-life:
2 days
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