T42 LoT Tracking Solutions PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
587.25%
decreased by 11.70%
1 Week
606.58%
increased by 7.63%
1 Month
673.91%
increased by 74.96%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 27, 2013 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5,824.8090 | 3.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1366 | 122.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9896 | 363.56*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0035 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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