T42 LoT Tracking Solutions PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
66.79%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
70.64%
increased by 3.17%
1 Month
78.62%
increased by 11.15%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 27, 2013 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6362 | 2.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0909 | 2.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8151 | 12.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.1956 | 0.65 |
| γ2 | -0.6807 | -1.58 |
| γ3 | 0.8452 | 3.49*** |
| γ4 | -0.4317 | -2.08** |
| γ5 | 0.0112 | 0.06 |
| γ6 | 0.0917 | 0.61 |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
Other T42 LoT Tracking Solutions PLC Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities