V-Lab
T42 LoT Tracking Solutions PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
56.91%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
60.78%
increased by 3.56%
1 Month
69.39%
increased by 12.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 27, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6307 | 2.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0854 | 2.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8360 | 14.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.1673 | 0.53 |
| γ2 | -0.6375 | -1.43 |
| γ3 | 0.8248 | 3.24*** |
| γ4 | -0.4164 | -1.91* |
| γ5 | -0.0320 | -0.15 |
| γ6 | 0.1500 | 1.00 |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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