T42 LoT Tracking Solutions PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
71.45%
decreased by 4.81%
1 Week
76.62%
increased by 0.36%
1 Month
81.97%
increased by 5.71%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 27, 2013 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 239% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0807 | 8.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3048 | 4.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1932 | 7.62*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 8.8456 | 0.29 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2258 | 0.30 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5278 | 0.32 |
Persistence:
0.482
Half-life:
1 days
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