V-Lab
Capgemini Se MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
34.53%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
34.83%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
35.61%
increased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9265 | 226.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0714 | 23.02*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0301 | 1.70* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0254 | 1.78* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9670 | 52.24*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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