Capgemini Se MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
39.10%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Week
38.78%
decreased by 1.28%
1 Month
37.75%
decreased by 2.31%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2004 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9235 | 243.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0723 | 23.86*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0572 | 2.00** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0457 | 2.33** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9396 | 35.69*** |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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