V-Lab
Capgemini Se GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
47.16%
1 Week
47.08%
1 Month
46.75%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2004 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.9846 | 0.98 |
| αARCH | 0.0438 | 11.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9944 | 170.25*** |
| νDF | 3.8654 | 4.51*** |
0.994
Persistence124d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.9846 | 0.98 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0438 | 11.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9944 | 170.25*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8654 | 4.51*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
124 days
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