V-Lab
Capgemini Se Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
36.85%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Week
36.67%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Month
36.02%
decreased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 50 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1705 | 9.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0395 | 4.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9467 | 93.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 1.73* |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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