Capgemini Se Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
37.25%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
37.06%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
36.36%
decreased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2004 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 49 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1737 | 9.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0394 | 4.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9466 | 92.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 1.78* |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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