V-Lab
Capgemini Se Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
40.06%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
39.82%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
38.96%
decreased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2004 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 52 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1664 | 9.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.0391 | 4.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9477 | 95.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 1.65* |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1664 | 9.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0391 | 4.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9477 | 95.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 1.65* |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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