V-Lab
Capgemini Se Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
39.56%
increased by 0.29%
1 Week
39.50%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
39.30%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3448 | 10.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.0395 | 4.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9422 | 80.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0045 | 2.93*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3448 | 10.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0395 | 4.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9422 | 80.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0045 | 2.93*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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