V-Lab
Capgemini Se APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
38.57%
1 Week
38.53%
1 Month
38.38%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. The volatility power δ = 1.19 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0362 | 4.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.0315 | 0.86 |
| βGARCH | 0.9575 | 128.41*** |
| γleverage | 1.0000 | 0.53 |
| δpower | 1.1941 | 6.58*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0362 | 4.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0315 | 0.86 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9575 | 128.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.53 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1941 | 6.58*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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