V-Lab
Deutsche Lufthansa AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
50.33%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
50.50%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
51.05%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0971 | 7.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0439 | 6.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9272 | 84.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0828 | -1.71* |
| γ2 | 0.1716 | 2.25** |
| γ3 | -0.1378 | -2.72*** |
| γ4 | 0.0244 | 0.50 |
| γ5 | 0.0916 | 1.81* |
| γ6 | -0.1037 | -2.09** |
| γ7 | 0.0369 | 0.60 |
| γ8 | 0.0386 | 0.64 |
| γ9 | -0.1314 | -2.35** |
| γ10 | 0.2591 | 3.38*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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