GCM Corp Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
126.34%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Week
124.16%
decreased by 3.20%
1 Month
118.57%
decreased by 8.79%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1356 | 5.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0442 | 3.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8785 | 20.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2591 | 0.67 |
| γ2 | 0.0022 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.8684 | -2.10** |
| γ4 | 1.2129 | 3.25*** |
| γ5 | -0.6802 | -1.39 |
| γ6 | -0.3871 | -0.64 |
| γ7 | 0.7867 | 1.95* |
| γ8 | 0.0217 | 0.06 |
| γ9 | -1.0321 | -2.17** |
| γ10 | 0.9917 | 2.99*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
Other GCM Corp Ltd Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities