GCM Corp Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
134.41%
1 Week
134.26%
1 Month
132.56%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 69% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0532 | 9.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8217 | 45.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0217 | -3.16*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.32 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7433 | 0.80 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1263 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
0.864
Half-life:
5 days
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