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V-Lab

GCM Corp Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

134.41%

decreased by 1.09%

1 Week

134.26%

decreased by 1.24%

1 Month

132.56%

decreased by 2.94%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of GCM Corp Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 69% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0532
9.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8217
45.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0217
-3.16***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.32
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7433
0.80
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1263
0.09

Persistence:

0.864

Half-life:

5 days