GCM Corp Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
171.74%
decreased by 4.79%
1 Week
171.24%
decreased by 5.29%
1 Month
169.46%
decreased by 7.07%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days. The volatility power δ = 1.77 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 6.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0758 | 18.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9123 | 224.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0493 | 1.23 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7694 | 29.45*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
39 days
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