GCM Corp Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
136.45%
decreased by 4.32%
1 Week
136.04%
decreased by 4.73%
1 Month
134.75%
decreased by 6.02%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5582 | 13.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0566 | 20.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9055 | 251.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4561 | 0.93 |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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