GCM Corp Ltd EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
150.64%
increased by 3.45%
1 Week
151.45%
increased by 4.26%
1 Month
154.64%
increased by 7.45%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 139 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0277 | 1.70* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0438 | 11.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9950 | 349.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0404 | -7.39*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
139 days
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