GCM Corp Ltd GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
130.92%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
130.98%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
131.20%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 128 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3988 | 4.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0261 | 10.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9685 | 250.71*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
128 days
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