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V-Lab

GCM Corp Ltd GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

130.92%

increased by 0.07%

1 Week

130.98%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

131.20%

increased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of GCM Corp Ltd GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 128 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3988
4.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0261
10.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9685
250.71***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

128 days