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V-Lab

GCM Corp Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

135.98%

increased by 0.62%

1 Week

136.07%

increased by 0.71%

1 Month

136.45%

increased by 1.09%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of GCM Corp Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 179 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 125% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3355
3.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0160
10.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9703
271.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0199
3.46***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

179 days