GCM Corp Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
7,032.92%
increased by 252.47%
1 Week
7,031.06%
increased by 250.61%
1 Month
7,023.66%
increased by 243.21%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 144,296.3000 | 12.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0475 | 94.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0003 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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