GCM Corp Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
137.33%
increased by 0.80%
1 Week
137.51%
increased by 0.98%
1 Month
138.23%
increased by 1.70%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 236 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 138% more than positive returns
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2536 | 3.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0257 | 10.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9712 | 288.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2244 | 7.88*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8986 | 22.85*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
236 days
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