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V-Lab

GCM Corp Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

137.33%

increased by 0.80%

1 Week

137.51%

increased by 0.98%

1 Month

138.23%

increased by 1.70%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of GCM Corp Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 236 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 138% more than positive returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2536
3.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0257
10.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9712
288.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2244
7.88***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8986
22.85***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

236 days