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V-Lab

East Money Information Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

34.16%

increased by 0.40%

1 Week

35.52%

increased by 1.76%

1 Month

39.98%

increased by 6.22%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of East Money Information Co Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 19, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 50% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.13 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1279
9.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0729
13.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9104
141.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1766
-4.58***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1334
10.10***

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days