V-Lab
East Money Information Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
34.16%
1 Week
35.52%
1 Month
39.98%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 50% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.13 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1279 | 9.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0729 | 13.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9104 | 141.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1766 | -4.58*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1334 | 10.10*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
Other East Money Information Co Ltd Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on International Equities