East Money Information Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
50.71%
1 Week
51.04%
1 Month
52.15%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 51% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.13 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1255 | 9.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0718 | 13.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9119 | 141.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1815 | -4.63*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1266 | 9.95*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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