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V-Lab

East Money Information Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

50.71%

decreased by 1.24%

1 Week

51.04%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Month

52.15%

increased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of East Money Information Co Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 19, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 51% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.13 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1255
9.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0718
13.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9119
141.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1815
-4.63***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1266
9.95***

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days