V-Lab
East Money Information Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
31.89%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
32.76%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
35.38%
increased by 2.96%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2775 | 5.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0596 | 4.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9032 | 48.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0029 | 1.69* |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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