East Money Information Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
47.56%
decreased by 1.16%
1 Week
47.26%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Month
46.29%
decreased by 2.43%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2705 | 5.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0581 | 4.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9063 | 49.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0029 | 1.60 |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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