East Money Information Co Ltd EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
51.58%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
51.92%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Month
53.00%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0874 | 13.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1363 | 15.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9657 | 342.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0252 | 1.82* |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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