East Money Information Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
48.01%
decreased by 2.14%
1 Week
48.32%
decreased by 1.83%
1 Month
49.22%
decreased by 0.93%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5255 | 22.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0883 | 36.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8611 | 349.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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