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V-Lab

East Money Information Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

52.99%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

54.06%

increased by 0.74%

1 Month

53.55%

increased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of East Money Information Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 19, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0482
1.35
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7824
8.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0482
-1.29
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.4406
0.18
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3372
0.15
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5284
0.17

Persistence:

0.807

Half-life:

3 days