V-Lab
East Money Information Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
32.91%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
33.81%
increased by 0.74%
1 Month
35.96%
increased by 2.89%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0486 | 1.45 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7857 | 9.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0486 | -1.38 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.5070 | 0.18 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3553 | 0.15 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5016 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.810
Half-life:
3 days
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