East Money Information Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
52.99%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
54.06%
increased by 0.74%
1 Month
53.55%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0482 | 1.35 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7824 | 8.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0482 | -1.29 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.4406 | 0.18 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3372 | 0.15 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5284 | 0.17 |
Persistence:
0.807
Half-life:
3 days
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