East Money Information Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
45.57%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
45.27%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
44.40%
decreased by 1.68%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 1.39 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1872 | 6.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1709 | 18.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8085 | 81.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0063 | -0.64 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3864 | 7.24*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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