V-Lab
Plc Spa Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
26.42%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
29.76%
increased by 3.29%
1 Month
38.01%
increased by 11.54%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 20, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 32% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 2.54 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7697 | 12.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1489 | 33.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7842 | 161.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0546 | 6.28*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.5351 | 34.37*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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