V-Lab
Plc Spa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
29.78%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
34.16%
increased by 4.39%
1 Month
36.37%
increased by 6.60%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 20, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7781 | 2.47** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2521 | 4.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3047 | 3.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3576 | 1.88* |
| γ2 | -0.3039 | -1.22 |
| γ3 | -0.1671 | -0.97 |
| γ4 | 0.1750 | 1.19 |
| γ5 | -0.0066 | -0.04 |
| γ6 | -0.3932 | -2.21** |
| γ7 | 0.7196 | 4.73*** |
| γ8 | -0.5332 | -3.39*** |
| γ9 | 0.1663 | 1.20 |
| γ10 | -0.0024 | -0.03 |
Persistence:
0.557
Half-life:
1 days
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